Problem structuring and decision analysis

Procurements decision support

Support has been provided to several major tender evaluation exercises on behalf of a major Government department. These procurements required a rigorous and auditable approach to evaluating the merits of competing tenders and identifying a preferred supplier. These studies have included the development and use of formal decision analysis methods which have a rigorous mathematical basis and which permit sensitivity analyses appropriate to the varied circumstances of each procurement. This has enabled, by way of example, small differences in tender merit to be explored rigorously, intentional and unintentional bias in evaluators’ assessments to be identified and corrected, and a potential legal challenge to a procurement decision to be forestalled.

Secure Information Infrastructure

The client was conducting an extensive research programme into technologies to improve and deliver a secure information infrastructure for an organisation operating world-wide. The client required an assessment of the business value of each research approach so that successive research stages could be prioritised. David Wrigley used the soft systems methodology to build and demonstrate a high level view of network management, and then used operational analysis methods including queuing theory to demonstrate the business value of proposed technologies. The work was presented to stakeholders alongside of demonstrations of the technologies.

The customer required a benefits analysis to support the business case for a new computer system that will deliver services to a wide range of business users. The justification for the new computer system is partly adjudged on the delivery of improved value within the business users’ own businesses (and not on the income from direct sale of services to these businesses). The study approach included interviewing a selection of business users to identify the decisions they would make as a result of the improved computer system and developing a benefits model based on the outcomes of those decisions as informed by the service offerings.

IT system acquisition

The customer required a benefits analysis to support the business case for a new computer system that will deliver services to a wide range of business users. The justification for the new computer system is partly adjudged on the delivery of improved value within the business users’ own businesses (and not on the income from direct sale of services to these businesses). The study approach included interviewing a selection of business users to identify the decisions they would make as a result of the improved computer system and developing a benefits model based on the outcomes of those decisions as informed by the service offerings.

Investment in digital technologies

The client was making a significant investment in new digital technologies to support their mainstream business. This project required a business case to demonstrate the value of the proposed system. However, a conventional cost benefits analysis was not possible due to the unusual nature of the business model for the organisation. David Wrigley interviewed the principal directors and managers within the organisation and developed a comprehensive benefits map which illustrated how benefits accrued from key features of the proposed system. This was provided in poster form, to be displayed in directors’ offices as a reminder of the key benefits of the new system. In this way, all directors gained a common understanding of the benefits of the new technology.

Cost-capability study for a ship design

The client required advice on the systems to be fitted to a new ship design, such that the ship could perform a mix of tasks across several operational roles. However, the total cost of the ship was severely constrained, and it was necessary to be able to explore how combinations of the different system options would be effective in different circumstances. David Wrigley developed a model of the capabilities provided by the various systems and the operational roles of the ship.  The relative importance of each task and role were explored with the client organisation in a series of workshops and as a result the stakeholders gained a common understanding of the relative merits of the system options, the combinations that would be most cost effective, and the impact of overall cost constraints on the effectiveness of the ship. The study demonstrated that a modest increase in the overall cost of the ship would result in a design that was much more cost effective across a wide range of roles and provide greater capability in those roles.